Hepatitis C market to see steady decline as high cure rates in major markets curb patient populations

The hepatitis C market is set to experience a steady decline, falling from $21.7 billion in 2015 to $17.5 billion by 2025, representing a negative compound annual growth rate of 2.1%, according to research and consulting firm GlobalData.

The company’s report states that this deterioration in sales, which will occur across the nine major markets (9MM) of the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Brazil, and China, will be due to recent advances made in hepatitis C treatment, which have resulted in high cure rates and reduced adverse effects for the vast majority of individuals with chronic hepatitis C infection.

The main market for direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) curing patients of hepatitis C in 2015 was the US, contributing to over 60% of the total market size. However, declining patient populations and unusually high DAA treatment rates in 2015 will reduce the disease prevalence in the US market to a more sustainable level, with the US contributing only 48% of sales in the 9MM by 2025.

Mirco Junker, Ph.D., Healthcare Analyst for GlobalData, notes: “The introduction of multiple pan-genotypic DAA therapy alternatives has the potential to significantly improve on current treatment algorithms by reducing the complexity of treatment recommendations, by shortening treatment duration, and by offering excellent efficacy and safety profiles for a broad spectrum of hepatitis C virus genotypes.”

Europe’s contribution to global hepatitis C DAAs is actually projected to increase slightly, from 20% in 2015 to 24% by 2025, although sales distribution among individual countries in the region will be highly uneven.

Junker continues: “France, Germany, and the UK, for example, benefited from low prevalence rates and high treatment rates in 2015, and will be in the best position globally to eradicate hepatitis C without significantly raising the cost burden of DAA treatments. Meanwhile, Spain and Italy will face an increased cost burden as the high prevalence in both countries will push more patients into expensive DAA treatments.”